by Datuk Dr. Pamela Yong
INSAP Pre-Election Analysis
05 October 2023
Our key findings indicate Barisan Nasional (BN) holds a better chance compared to Perikatan Nasional in this battle which was triggered by the passing of former ADUN, the late Datuk Seri Johari Harun. Overall response from the 120 people we spoke to said they (62.5%) preferred BN to win in DUN Pelangai noting the contributions of previous ADUNs including the late Datuk Seri Johari and Tan Sri Dato’ Sri Haji Adnan Yaakob, who was also the former Menteri Besar of Pahang.
Interestingly, both Malay and Chinese respondents remember the late Datuk Seri Johari very fondly and said he was very close to the local community, and was in fact taking many initiatives to bring about progress to Pelangai until his untimely demise. However, they did lament also the lack of infrastructure and amenities such as banks and hospital, connectivity and job opportunities in the area – which they hope can be addressed as soon as possible by the BN-led state government
As we have detected voices of dissatisfaction, especially among the Malays towards the current government and also 33% of Malay respondents who refused to answer or undecided on the question of which party best represent them, we could assume that there may still be room for PN to gain significant inroads in the Malay heartland or capture a bigger vote Malay vote share compared to previous elections.
Based on a simulation by INSAP, any coalition would need at least 52% Malay support to cross the 51% threshold to win this by-election, assuming the turnout rate is as low as 60% and support from non-Malays are spilt in half for BN-PH and PN.