by Datuk Dr Pamela Yong
Chairman of Institute of Strategic Analysis and Policy Research (INSAP)
The N48 Ayer Kuning by-election on April 26 is more than a race to fill a vacant state seat, it is a reflection of Malaysia’s political undercurrents and a gauge of shifting sentiments among the Malay majority, the Chinese electorate, and the national coalition landscape. Though affecting only one constituency in Perak, its impact is national in scope.
Local Contest, National Symbolism
What may seem like a local affair is, in fact, a symbolic battleground for competing national narratives. UMNO, representing Barisan Nasional (BN), seeks to hold its ground, while Perikatan Nasional (PN) and its PAS candidate aim to capture more Malay support. The decision by Pakatan Harapan (PH) to back the BN candidate under the Unity Government framework further reinforces the national relevance of this by-election.
This by-election will test the Perak BN’s grassroots cohesion. Can BN and PH supporters work together on the ground? A win would suggest a functioning alliance; a loss, especially to PN, would boost the opposition’s momentum and raise questions about the coalition’s durability.
The Shifting Malay Ground
One of the most closely watched aspects is the mood among Malay voters. Ayer Kuning is a predominantly Malay constituency, making the contest over the Malay vote especially crucial. Election data in recent elections suggest that PAS has made inroads in Ayer Kuning, gaining traction with conservative and younger Malay voters. With the by-election held shortly after Hari Raya, turnout will be critical. Mobilisation efforts by each coalition may determine the outcome.
Plus, youth sentiment is leaning toward PAS’s moral and anti-establishment narrative. BN and PH must not ignore this generational shift. Young voters want clarity, consistency, and leaders who engage with them meaningfully, not recycled slogans. This coming by-election is a moment to recalibrate political outreach to youth through policy relevance and rebuild authentic and meaningful connections.
Equally important, this by-election must transcend the usual 3R (race, religion, royalty) rhetoric. While both the government and opposition may be tempted to exploit these sentiments for short-term gain, especially on Malay ground, doing so risks further polarising society and stalling national progress. Ayer Kuning voters deserve a forward-looking, inclusive campaign that focuses on governance, development, and genuine leadership, not identity politics.
Navigating the Chinese Support
Much like the post-Raya turnout dip among Malay voters, Chinese voters may also hesitate to return for polling day due to the Qing Ming Festival on April 4. Many outstation Chinese, particularly young salaried workers, would have made their trip home in late March or early April, making a return for the by-election at the end of April seem inconvenient. By-elections, which usually draw less interest, may further dampen turnout.
On top of that, recent political and socioeconomic developments may influence the overall mood within the Chinese community. While there are rising expectations of the Unity Government after slightly over two years in power, some Chinese voters may feel that more could be done to address their expectations. It is no surprise that this sentiment would be reflected or manifested to some extent in the local Chinese community. The key would be navigating through the sentiment, which should be acknowledged and addressed thoughtfully by BN and fellow campaign partners through strategic and responsive engagement.
Chinese voters, who comprise 21.1% of the Ayer Kuning electorate, could play a decisive role or kingmaker, especially when tense competitions are expected in Malay ground. While this presents a challenge, it also offers an opportunity. If BN, alongside the Unity Government, can provide credible assurances, genuine policy engagement, and a respectful stance toward their concerns, Chinese voters may be swayed. BN’s groundwork, paired with MCA’s grassroots presence, could be pivotal in securing the necessary support in the upcoming by-election.
BN’s Model of Harmony in Action
Ayer Kuning, a state constituency contested by UMNO, alongside Chenderiang which is currently represented by MCA Assemblyman YB Choong Shin Heng, falls under the Tapah parliamentary constituency, which is held by MIC Deputy President YB Datuk Seri M. Saravanan. This unique composition of one parliamentary and two state seats represented by three different BN component parties—UMNO, MCA, and MIC, embodies the spirit of political unity, harmony, mutual understanding, and effective governance.
It serves as a good example of the multiracial and moderate political model that BN has long championed. With sincere commitment and strategic groundwork, Ayer Kuning holds the potential to become a national model of political moderation and cross-cultural cooperation.
Battling Political Apathy
Another key challenge is rising political apathy. While the electoral roll has grown, turnout has not matched this increase. Disillusionment and fatigue, especially among urban and swing voters, pose a serious threat to voter engagement.
Mobilisation will be a deciding factor in this tight contest. Traditional campaign tactics alone may no longer suffice. Voters must be reached where they are, physically and emotionally. Emphasising good governance, stability, and future-focused messaging will likely resonate more than old-style politicking.
A Microcosm of National Politics
Ayer Kuning by-election encapsulates Malaysia’s broader political evolution. The contest raises important questions: What kind of leadership do Malaysians want? Are we still bound to ethnic champions, or can we move toward inclusive statesmanship?
It is time for politicians to rise above communalism. Representing Malaysians as a whole, not just specific racial groups, this must be the next chapter of our democratic journey. Only through this shift can we overcome the divisions that have long hindered national progress.
Beyond the Ballot Box
Ultimately, the Ayer Kuning by-election is not just about who wins. It is a moment for voters to reflect on the kind of Malaysia they envision, one anchored in democratic values, inclusivity, and effective governance. This is a chance to send a message: that Malaysians want political maturity, not tribalism.
Through this campaign and their votes, Ayer Kuning voters have the power to signal the nation’s direction. In doing so, they also remind political leaders that unity, trust, and people- centric leadership are what the country needs most.
11 April 2025