Edwin Oh Chun Kit
Our contemporary world is undergoing a transformation marked by global geopolitical tussles while economic, technological and social landscapes continue to evolve rapidly. The era of a unipolar world dominated by singular, major powers are behind us – paving the way to a fragmented multipolar framework, characterized by competing centres of influence. This emerging global order can sometimes be better understood as an “interpolar world” – multipolarity in the age of interdependence. This is because despite the growing redistribution of power on the global stage, there is deepening interdependence – primarily from a socioeconomic and technological perspective which continue to shape international dynamics and cooperation in ways that transcends traditional power structures.
Nevertheless, there is no doubt that global tensions – both direct and indirect continue to rise, fuelled by the recalibration of economic priorities, rising regional and global power plays as well as the intensifications of security concerns, driven by zero-sum dynamics. All these agents contribute to an increasingly fluid and complex geopolitical climate, which calls for greater leadership that can offer some balancing force to counter this. This is the chance for regional blocs or even sub-region and transregional minilateral ones to assume a more pivotal role to facilitate dialogues, mediate disputes, reduce frictions and encourage multilateral cooperation. ASEAN – with its unique positioning and commitment to inclusivity, is well poised to take on this role, which they are no stranger to.
Over the decades, ASEAN has adeptly engaged with a wide range of dialogue partners – skilfully “dancing with many giants” and serving as a critical stabilizing core in the region. ASEAN centrality is at the heart of this, with its ability to maintain strategic autonomy and foster inclusivity cementing its reputation as a reliable and pragmatic mediator, particularly in balancing the interests of both the West and the Global South. Traditional partnerships with Western nations and important dialogue partners such as Australia, Japan and the EU, have always been and will remain critical. However, the current geoeconomic and socio-political climate underscores the importance of diversifying relationships.
ASEAN still continues to explore opportunities to diversify its trade partners and strengthen external collaborations. This was one of the main themes of discussion in the recent 15th Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club in Kuala Lumpur, held from December 9 to 10, 2024 in collaboration with Bait Al Amanah (Malaysia), Institute of Strategic Analysis and Policy Research (INSAP, Malaysia) and the Sasakawa Peace Foundation (Japan).
This conference offered a platform to discuss new avenues of cooperation. H.E. Andrey Rudenko, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation, exemplified this by proposing measures to enhance ASEAN-Russia relations. He emphasized Russia’s potential to support ASEAN’s regional aspirations through initiatives such as diversifying financial systems, reducing reliance on the US Dollar and fostering bilateral trade via local currencies. Rudenko also highlighted opportunities to leverage Russia’s natural resources to bolster ASEAN’s energy and food security, while advancing
collaboration in digital innovation and technology. Furthermore, he advocated for closer integration with frameworks such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), positioning ASEAN as a critical partner in shaping a balanced multipolar global order.
From a Russian perspective, they have long maintained constructive partnerships with Asia. However, their ‘pivot to the East’ in the 2010s – driven by the need to recalibrate global engagements amidst rising tensions with the West, has further strengthened their intentions to forge stronger ties with the region in recent years. Despite this recent shift, the roots of Russia-ASEAN relations can actually stretch back to 1991, when the two began establishing a strategic framework for bilateral cooperation (Korolev, 2024), with Russia becoming a full Dialogue Partner in 1996 (Presidential Executive Office, Russia, 2005). Over the decades, the relationship has deepened, marked by active participation in ASEAN-centric platforms and the development of significant institutional ties.
However, Russia-ASEAN trade remains rather limited in both diversity and volume. For instance, trade turnover between them has remained relatively stagnant, with little change in figures from 2018 to 2021. While there has been some growth recently, with total trade rising by 2.8% from USD15.37 billion in 2022 to USD15.80 billion in 2023 and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows from Russia to ASEAN grew by 20.8% from USD66.22 million in 2022 to USD200.74 million in 2023 – the modest figures still fall short of their economic potential, with Russia only ranking as ASEAN’s tenth-largest trading partner and source of FDI among ASEAN Dialogue Partners in 2023 (The ASEAN Secretariat, 2024).
These current trade figures establish a baseline and foundation for economic cooperation but also highlights the untapped potential for further strengthening ties. Participants at the 15th Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club concurred that the path to unlocking this potential lies in exploring synergies through shared priorities, such as diversifying financial systems and fostering regional resilience. These measures they concluded, would potentially deepen partnerships and contribute significantly to regional stability and prosperity.
ABOUT AUTHOR
Edwin Oh Chun Kit engages in political economics and public policy discourse at The Institute of Strategic Analysis and Policy Research (INSAP), a think-tank based in Malaysia. His work focuses on Malaysia’s socioeconomic progress, youth empowerment, and the promotion of policies that foster shared prosperity and stability across ASEAN and the broader region.